基于托宾Q值法的我国房地产上市公司投资价值判别

Identification of Investment Value for the Chinese Real Estate Listed Companies based on the Tobin's Q Method

为分析我国房地产上市公司的投资价值,结合沪深A股52家样本公司的财务和股市数据,计算房地产行业的均衡托宾Q值和2011年各公司的实际托宾Q值,判别样本公司2012年的投资价值,并根据2012年的股价增长率检验公司投资价值的判别效果。结果表明:①2005-2011年基于样本房地产上市公司求得的行业均衡Q值为0.506;②2011年52家样本房地产上市公司中,一半以上(32家)具有投资价值,表明总体上我国房地产上市公司具有投资价值;③样本公司投资价值判别的准确率为78.9%,验证了托宾Q值法判别房地产上市公司投资价值的适用性。

To analyze the investment value in Chinese real estate listed companies, the equilibrium Tohin＇s Q value of the real estate industry and the actual Tobin＇s Q values of 52 real estate companies listed on A-share market in 2011 were calculated with financial and stock market data, and the investment values of sample companies in 2012 were identified accordingly. Then, the accuracy to identify the corporate investment values was tested on the basis of the stock price growth in 2012. The findings show that （1） during 2005-2011, the equilibrium Tobin＇s Q value of the sample real estate listed companies was 0. 506 ; （2） of all 52 sample real estate listed companies in 2011, more than half （32 companies） possessed investment values in 2011, indicating that the Chinese real estate listed companies held investment values in general; （3） the identification accuracy of investment value in sample companies reached up to 78.9%, so the applicability of the Tobin＇s Q method to identify investment values for real estate listed companies was validated.