基于生命周期理论的道路客运发展

Development of road passenger transportation based on life cycle theory

将生命周期理论应用到道路客运中,提出了道路客运生命周期理论。该理论将客运发展分为进入期、成长期、成熟期和衰退期4个阶段,并建立Gompertz模型来定量分析道路客运的发展规律,分析了道路客运在各个阶段的表现形式和相应阶段应采取的发展策略。最后以某省为例,将该理论运用到实际案例中,拟合出符合实际的Gompertz曲线,验证了该理论在道路客运发展研究中的有效性。

Life cycle theory is applied to the road passenger transportation,road passenger transportation life cycle theory is proposed,and passenger transportation development can be divided into four stages：including enter period,growth period,maturity period and de-cline period.And the Gompertz model is established to quantitatively analyze the road pas-senger transportation in keeping with the development law of life cycle theory.After it is an-alyzed that the forms of road passenger transport at various stages in the life cycle and de-velopment strategy should be taken at each stage.Finally,an example of a certain province is given,this theory is applied into practice,fitting realistic Gompertz curve.It verify the va-lidity of the theory in the development research of road passenger transportation.