基于协整理论的陕西省能源消费与经济增长关系研究

Research on the Relationship between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth of Shaanxi Province Based on Cointegration Theory

通过对1985—2011年陕西省国内生产总值和能源消费量的比较,发现陕西省能源消费、煤炭消费分别与陕西国内生产总值存在长期的协整关系,但不存在Granger因果关系。由此不仅说明了陕西省经济增长不是导致其能源消费、煤炭消费的Granger原因,也说明了单纯依靠降低经济增长来控制能源消费、煤炭消费是行不通的,同时说明了通过增加能源消费来提升经济增长的政策是无效的。

Compared with the energy consumption and GDP data in Shaanxi during the period from 1985 to 2011, it＇s found out that there exists the long con -integration relationship between energy consumption, coal consumption, and economic growth in Shaanxi, but both of them have no Granger causality. It is also revealed that Shaanxi Economic growth is not the Granger cause of its energy consumption and coal consumption, and that the policy to control energy consumption or coal consumption by reducing the economic growth is not feasible. It is also shown that the policy to improve economic growth by increasing energy consumption or coal consumption is invalid.