IPCC第五次评估报告关于气候变化影响的检测和归因主要结论的解读

Interpretation of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Detection and Attribution of Observed Impacts

本文对IPCC第五次评估报告第二工作组报告关于"观测到的气候变化影响的检测和归因"方面的主要结论和研究进展进行解读。自IPCC第四次评估报告以来,气候变化对自然和人类系统影响方面的证据不断增多,尤其新的或更有力的证据表明气候变化已经对许多自然系统(包括冰冻圈、水资源、海岸带以及生态系统)产生了确凿和广泛的影响。同时,在人类系统对气候变化的敏感性方面也搜集到了大量的新证据。尽管第五次评估报告在检测和归因的方法和涵盖内容等方面都有了明显进展,但目前的检测和归因研究在资料、概念和模型发展等方面仍存在着有待改进的缺陷和不足。

New and longer-term observations, and more extensive analyses on existing data reveal that impacts of recent changes in climate on natural systems, human and managed systems occur on all continents and across the oceans. This paper summarizes the recent findings from Working Group II contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on the detection and attribution of observed changes, including assessment of the different types of impacted systems and progress of detection and attribution methods. And research and knowledge gap requiring more concerns are also presented in this paper.