中国城市房地产市场泡沫水平度量研究——以青岛市房地产市场为例

On the Measurement of Bubble Level of China's Urban Real Estate Market——Taking Qingdao as an Example

房地产业的发展对我国经济有着明显的带动和制约作用,现实经济中房产泡沫的存在威胁着经济的发展。房产泡沫的研究通常采用指标体系衡量的方法,指标体系具体包括:供给指标、需求指标和投机价值。为确定上述三个指标的标准值区间,建立了相应的数学模型,并以青岛市为例,计算出2012年青岛市房地产泡沫度指数为1.51,即指数处于房地产泡沫的警戒区间。因此,以泡沫产生的原因为起点并结合我国现状,我国房产泡沫问题的解决应着重完善土地政策改革,调整保障性住房结构,规范市场秩序并建立房产市场预警制度等。

The development of the real estate industry has obvious driving and restricting effects on China ＇s economy ,and the housing bubbles have threatened the economic development .The supply index ,demand index and speculative value are adopted to analyze the housing bubbles .By constructing mathematical models , the range of standard values of these three indexes could be determined .It is calculated that the index of the housing bubbles in Qingdao real estate industry is 1.51which shows that the index stays at the warning range .It should be focused on improving the land policy reform , adjusting the indemnificatory housing structure , regulating market orders and establishing early warning system in the real estate market to solve the problems of China＇s housing bubbles .