新型GM(2,1)模型在电力负荷预测中的应用

Application of New GM(2,1)Model on Load Forecasting

电力负荷预测是电网调度中的一项重要工作,精确的负荷预测是电网运行安排的主要依据。文中提出了一种新型GM(2,1)模型的建模方法,克服了传统GM(2,1)模型强行定义白化微分方程常数项所带来的数据突变问题。将上述方法用于电力负荷预测,实例仿真结果表明,与传统的GM(2,1)模型相比,新模型具有更高的预测精度,为电力负荷预测提供了一种重要手段。

Load forecasting is an important work in the power network dispatch. Accurate load fore casting is the basis of the power network operation arrangement. A new GM （2, 1） modeling method was presented, it overcomes the data mutation problem of traditional GM （2, 1） model that caused by defining forced albino differential equation constant term. The method was used in the power load forecasting, the simulation results show that the new model has higher precision of prediction than the traditional GM （2, 1） model, which provides an important method for the power load forecasting.