主要工业行业出口贸易对碳排放影响的实证研究

Empirical Study of the Impact of Major Industries' Export on Carbon Emissions

研究对外贸易对碳排放量的影响,解决我国经济发展过程中贸易和环境之间的矛盾,对于我国加快建设资源节约型、环境友好型社会,有着重大的战略意义。本文采用因素分解法,选取2003年、2007年和2011年3个时间点的数据,定量测算我国主要工业行业出口贸易通过规模、结构和技术3种效应对碳排放的影响。研究结果表明,在第一个计算期内,出口贸易对碳排放影响的规模效应为正,结构效应为正,技术效应为负,在第二个计算期内,出口贸易对碳排放影响的规模效应为负,结构效应为负,技术效应为负,并据此提出了促进我国经济与资源、环境相协调发展的对策建议。

The paper studied the impact of foreign trade on carbon emissions and solved the contradiction between trade and environ -ment in the process of economic development in China ,which both have the important strategic significance for China to speed up the con -struction of resource saving and friendly environmental society .This paper used factor decomposition method to analyze the quantitative impact of major industries’ export on carbon emissions from three levels of scale effect , structural effect and technological effect .This paper chose three time point data of year 2003 ,2007 and 2011 .This paper pointed out three important conclusions .First ,it proved that the scale effect and the structural effect on the export trade in carbon emissions are positive .Second ,the technological effect is negative in the first calcula-tion period .Third ,the three effects are all negative in the second calculation period .Therefore ,our country in the precondition of the de-velopment of foreign trade ,wants to make the industry export and carbon emission reduction targets compatible ,which makes the foreign trade and the coordinated development of environmental protection ,which is the key to make efforts in the structure effect and technology effect .