省域碳排放影响因素比较研究

Comparative Study on the Factors Affecting the Provincial Carbon Emissions

分析碳排放情况,本文发现人均碳排放和碳排放密度之间没有必然联系;碳排放密度存在明显的空间群集效应。基于LMDI方法分解,发现人均产出起拉动作用,而能源效率和能源消费碳排放强度则主要是抑制作用。基于STIRPAT模型分析,发现人均总产出水平、单位产出的化石能源消耗量、煤炭消费占比均对碳排放有显著的强化作用。建议:大力发展便捷的公共交通、倡导绿色出行,减轻交通对大城市碳排放的压力;通过改变能源结构,通过电力能源生产外迁等方式降低排放密度超高的地区碳排放压力、开发清洁能源,降低二氧化碳高排放能源消费占比;对高能耗产业逐步实施"产能总量控制——限制出口——进口替代"路径的产业优化措施,逐步减轻"输入性碳排放"压力。

Based on descriptive statistics analysis method to analyze the 30 provinces and autonomous regions and the country’s car-bon dioxide emissions ,this paper found ： per capita carbon emissions and carbon emissions density are not necessarily linked , secondary energy output region’s per capita carbon emissions are high ,and the density of carbon emissions is low ;carbon emissions density had obvi-ously spatial clustering effect .The LMDI method is used to decompose on the driving factors based on carbon emissions per capita ,found that per capita output has stimulating effect ,while energy efficiency and carbon intensity of energy consumption are inhibited .Based on analysis of influencing factors by STIRPAT model ,we found that per capita output ,fossil energy consumption per unit of output ,coal con-sumption accounted for carbon emissions have a significant strengthening effect .Thus it recommends to vigorously develop the convenient public transportation ,promote green travel ,and reduce traffic pressure on the city carbon emissions ; as supplementary carbon trading ,by changing the structure of energy , particularly through the relocation of electrical energy production ,etc .it should reduce carbon emission density in high pressure ;further we optimize the energy structure ,the development of clean energy , reduce the high emission energy con-sumption ratio ; the high energy consumption industry gradually implement the “capacity control - export restrictions and import substitu-tion” path of the industrial optimization measures , and gradually reduce “the input of carbon emissions” pressure .