基于灰色关联度模型的中国林业经济增长影响因素分析

Factors Influencing China's Forest Economic Growth Based on Grey Correlation Model

根据1978—2011年我国林业经济发展的相关数据,采用灰色关联度模型,实证分析了林业劳动力、固定资产投资、造林面积、林业科技、产权制度等要素对我国林业经济增长的影响。结果表明,各因素对林业总产值影响的大小顺序分别为资金投入、制度变迁、造林面积、劳动力投入和科技进步,其关联度系数分别为0.889 606 036、0.859 125 35、0.838 669、0.830 188 917、0.808 583 418。林业资本投入成为我国林业经济增长的主要因素,产权制度变迁因素对于林业经济增长具有正向的推动作用。

Based on the data of Chinese forestry economic development from 1978 to 2011 ,the impact of labor input, forestry investment, afforestation area, technology progress and property system on forestry economy growth were analyzed by using the Gray Correlation Model.The results showed that the order of its impact on the forestry output value is capital investment, property system, afforestation area, labor input and technologies progress.The correlation coefficients of above-mention factors input above are 0.830 188 917, 0.889 606 036, 0.808 583 418,0.859 125 35 and 0.838 668 612. It means that forestry capital investment has become a major factor which contributes to the growth of forest economy while forest property system also plays a positive role.