我国碳生产率增长的长期关系和短期效应——基于面板协整研究

The Long-run and Short-run Effects on Carbon Productivity Growth in China——Based on the Panel Co Integration

通过对我国29个省域1995～2010年间碳生产率水平进行测算，利用面板单位根和面板协整方法考察了全国和分区域碳生产率增长与FDI、贸易开放、城市化、产业结构和人均GDP之间的关系，发现变量之间存在长期关系；同时，采用动态OLS（DOLS）回归方法考察了变量之间具体的长期关系，发现FDI、贸易开放、城市化和人均GDP对碳生产率增长起促进作用，第二产业所占份额的增加会抑制碳生产率的增长；最后，给出了误差修正模型（ECM），借以考察变量之间长期关系的稳定性和变量的短期效应。

On the basis of measuring the carbon productivity of Chinese 29 provinces during 1995 to 2010, this paper in-spect the relationship among carbon productivity growth, FDI, trade openness, urbanization, industrial structure and GDPper capital, through panel unit root test and panel co integration, the results confirm the long-run relation among the variables. Meanwhile, it examines the exact relation among these variables with DOLS, the results indicate that FDI, trade open-ness, urbanization and GDP per capital have a positive effect on carbon productivity growth, while industrial structure has anegative effect on carbon productivity growth. At the end, the error correction model is provided, in order to study the sta-bility and the shortrun effects on these variables.