当前经济增长的周期性、阶段性特征及政策思路

The Current Economic Growth Cycle, Phase Characteristics and Policy Ideas

根据经济周期谷底的特性以及中美两国经济紧密关联和经济周期越来越契合的规律,可以印证2009年就是新一轮经济周期的谷底,由此可以断定当前处于复苏阶段。然而近三年来我国经济增速持续下滑至谷底以下,这一反常现象是由于经济短周期冲高回落与经济增长阶段转换相互叠加造成的。河南省与全国经济周期高度一致,时滞半年左右。在高速经济增长阶段河南省潜在经济增长率比全国高出2个百分点,中高速阶段高出1.5个百分点。河南省近几年经济增速深度下滑,其关键原因是投资增速下滑,其根本原因是结构升级缓慢。未来河南经济要摆脱持续下行趋势,保持经济中高速增长,应坚持调结构、扩投资、促改革的政策思路,"调结构"是根本,"扩投资"是基础,"促改革"是保障。

according to the economic cycle trough characteristic that 2009 is China＇s economic cycle trough, and according to the economy of both countries are closely related and economic cycle more and more accord with the rule, can also be confirmed in 2009 is a new round of economic cycle trough, it can be concluded that when the former in the recovery phase. However, in the past three years of Chinag economic growth continued to slide to the bottom of the valley below, this anomaly is due to short cycle Chonggao down and economic growth stage conversion overlap caused by. Henan province and the countryg economic cycle is highly consistent, delayed about half a year. In the high - speed economic growth in Henan Province, the potential economic growth rate higher than the national 2 percentage depth growth of economic growth in Henan Province in recent years points, 1.5 percentage points higher speed. The down, the key reason is the decline in investment , the fundamental reason is that the structure upgrades slowly. The future of Henan province economy to continue downward trend, to maintain high growth economy, should adhere to the policy of expanding investment, adjusting the structure, promoting reform, ＂structural adjustment＂ is the fundamental, ＂expanding investment＂ is the foundation, ＂reform＂ is the guarantee.