累进性劳动所得税、失业波动与内生稳定器——一个动态新凯恩斯主义的视角

Progressive Labor Income Tax,Unemployment Fluctuation and Endogenous Stabilizer——A Dynamic New Keynesian Perspective

将累进性劳动所得税引入NKMP-DSGE模型中考察失业波动与累进性税收的宏观效应。贝叶斯脉冲响应函数表明,外生冲击对于就业与失业具有不同的冲击效应,因而忽略失业可能引起结论的偏误;失业的贝叶斯冲击分解结果表明,货币政策冲击是推动我国失业波动最重要的力量,并且我国劳动力市场存在显在的"失业回滞"。进一步,通过模型比较发现,累进性劳动所得税具有内生稳定器的作用。在失业问题日益严峻的背景下,采用对劳动力市场做出反应的货币政策机制以降低失业,并使用内生稳定器缓和经济波动,将可能实现降低失业与缓和经济波动的双重效果。

In this paper, we consider a NKMP - DSGE model with progressive labor income tax, and an- alyse unemployment fluctuation and the macroeconomics effect of labor income tax. The Bayesian impulse response function shows that the exogenous shocks have different effect on employment and unemployment, so ignoring unemployment may lead errors. The Bayesian shock decomposition argues that, monetary policy is the main driven force for unemployment and jobless fluctuations, and unemployment hysteresis significantly exist in China＇s labor market. Further, the result of model comparison shows that the labor income tax plays a endogenous stabilizer effect. Then, we believe that if monetary policy reacts to the labor market, mixed with the progressive labor income tax, may alleviate the serious unemployment and economics fluctuation.