天津市交通CO_2排放的测算与因素分解

Decomposition of Tianjin's Transport CO_2 Emissions Based on LMDI Method

对天津市2004—2011年交通CO2排放量进行核算,并以2004年为基年,应用LMDI因素分解方法,对天津市交通CO2排放量进行因素分解,得出以下结论:天津市交通CO2排放量整体呈增长趋势;交通能源强度效应对交通CO2排放起抑制作用,而交通能源结构效应、经济产出效应和人口规模效应对交通CO2排放起促进作用。并对天津市交通CO2减排提出如下对策:应加快天津市交通业向能源节约型和集约化的转变,并且应加大汽车节能科技研发力度,降低汽车能耗。

The CO2 emissions of transport in Tianjin during 2004-2010 were calculated.Taking 2004 as the base year, using LMDI decomposition method , the change of CO 2 emissions of transport was decomposed .The results show that： （ 1 ） The CO2 emissions of transport in Tianjin has increased on the whole .（2） Transport energy intensity factor is a negative factor for the CO2 emissions of transport in Tianjin while the transport energy structure factor , economic factor and population factor acted as promoting factors for the CO 2 emissions of transport in Tianjin .Finally the following countermeasures to reduce the CO 2 emissions of transport in Tianjin were put forward：（1） to accelerate the speed of converting transport to energy conservation and intensification.（2） increasing the intensity of research and development of energy saving technology to reduce energy consumption of vehicles.