基于气候变化的东北地区森林树种分布预测建模与影响分析

Modeling and Impact Analysis on Distribution Prediction of Forest Tree Species in Northeast China Based on Climate Change

以我国东北地区森林树种兴安落叶松、白桦和红皮云杉1981—1990年分布区域内气候数据为基础,运用基于模糊邻近关系的分层聚类和信息融合的理论与方法,获取影响3个树种的气候因子指标。进而建立树种分布预测的随机预测数学模型,进行相应的算法研究。在ArGIS 9.3界面下,利用MATLAB进行程序设计与运行,获得3个树种在2041—2050年的最适应、次适应和可适应分布区域预测图。进一步分析表明:气候变化使得我国东北地区兴安落叶松、白桦和红皮云杉的分布向北漂移,且兴安落叶松和白桦向西北方向漂移,而红皮云杉向东北方向漂移。同时气候变化是影响3个树种分布预测的主要因素。

Based on the climatic data collected from 1981 to 1990 in the actual distribution region of Larix gmelinii,Betula platyphylla,Picea koraiensis in Northeast China,12 climatic factors,which affect the 3 species,were extracted by using the theory and methods of hierarchical clustering based on fuzzy proximity relations and clustering fusion technology.A random mathematical model for predicting the distribution of tree species was constructed by using the rigorous theory and methods of statistical analysis and data processing,and the corresponding algorithm was studied.The MATLAB was used to design and run program under ArGIS9.3 interface,which produced predicting maps for the optimal adaptable distribution,the intermediate adaptable distribution and the general adaptable distribution of the three tree species in Northeast China from 2041 to 2050.By analyzing these maps,the distributions of the three tree species would drift to the north under climate change,L.gmelinii and B.platyphylla would drift to the northwest,and P.koraiensis would drift to the northeast.Furthermore,climate change was found to be the main impact factor in regulating the predicted distributions of the three tree species.