陕西省财政科技投入效率实证研究

Empirical research on efficiency of financial input to science and technology in Shaanxi province

根据陕西省1997--2011年实证数据，采用财政科技资金投入、财政科技资金投入占财政支出的比重、科技活动人员总数为投入指标，以授权专利量、科技论文产出量、技术市场交易额为输出指标，运用数据包络分析法（DEA）对陕西省这15 a的财政科技投入效率进行了分析，用DEA投影下的有效目标值对财政科技资金投入和科技活动人员总数进行调整。然后基于调整后的数据构造时间序列的输入样本，运用时间序列分析法对这两项投入指标2012--2016年的数据进行预测，以期为政策提供依据。

According to the empirical data of 1997--2011 financial input to science and technology inShaanxi province ,choosing fiscal science and technology investment, fiscal investment accounts for theproportion of fiscal expenditure of science and technology and activities of science and technology per-sonnel as input index, taking the total of the authorized patent, output of scientific papers and technologymarket turnover as output index, using the data envelopment analysis （DEA）, the efficiency of fiscal ex-penditure on science and technology of the 15 a of Shaanxi province was analyzed, and with the effectiveDEA projection target of fiscal science and technology investment, to adjust the total activity of scienceand technology personnel. Based on the adjusted data structure of time sequence of input samples, usingthe time series analysis method,the two input index data from 2012--2016 was forecast in order to provide the basis for policy