粮价波动与居民消费价格关系研究

Research on relationship between food price volatility and consumer price

粮食是维持居民正常生活的根本,其对居民消费价格的影响也不容小觑。不同粮食品种的市场开放程度和居民需求水平不一致,其价格波动对居民消费价格水平的影响也存在一定的差异。通过选取玉米、小麦、大豆和粳米4个品种来研究粮食价格波动和居民消费价格之间的相互影响关系,利用VAR模型、方差分析等方法探讨不同品种对消费价格的贡献比率及不同作用,从而得到不同品种生产和销售的政策建议。

Food is fundamental to maintain the normal life of residents, and its impact on consumer price cannot be underestimated. Because the degree of market opening of different grain was inconsistent with residents＇s demand levels, the effect of price fluctuations of different grain on the consumer price was different. This paper selects corn, wheat, soybeans and rice to study the relationship between food price volatility and consumer price, uses the method of VAR model and variance analysis to investigate the contribution rate and different roles on consumer prices, to gett the policy recommendations about production and sale of different kinds of grain.