中国房地产调控政策效果的区域差异性——基于事件研究法的实证分析

Regional Differences of Policy Effects in Chinese Housing Markets——Based on Event Study Methodology

采用事件研究法检验了2010—2011年间国务院的综合性房地产调控政策对全国商品房交易市场的调控效果。以"国十一条"、"国十条"、"国五条"、"新国八条"为典型独立事件,通过测算国内40个大中城市商品房成交面积的日度数据序列异常收益率,经比较分析得出结论:由于各地居民提前形成政策调整的适应性预期,历次房地产调控政策效果并不显著;更重要的是,房地产调控政策效果在东、中、西部地区商品房交易市场表现出了显著的区域差异性,建议国家在现有的全国性统一政策基础上制定具体的差别化调控政策,以期延长政策效果释放期。

This paper tests the comprehensive policy effect in residence housing market of China between 2010 and 2011 by using event study methodology.Selecting four typical independent events of housing controlling policies,the author calculates and comparatively analyzes the abnormal return series of daily deal area in 40 middle and large cities,and comes to the conclusion that （1） none of these housing policies demonstrated significantly lasting effects because of residences’ adaptive expectation ahead of the coming policies,and （2） more importantly,great differences of housing policy effects were verified in the eastern,middle and western areas of China.Therefore,a possible suggestion should be establishing distinctive regional housing policies among those areas in order to strengthen the effect of current comprehensive polices.