不确定条件下个性化产品提货时间损失规避行为模型

Risk-Averse Behavioral Model of Personalized Product Delivery Time under Uncertainty Condition

研究在不确定条件下,决策者风险规避行为对决策的影响,利用前景理论对决策者的风险规避行为进行建模,分析风险规避决策者的决策值与完全理性决策者的决策最优值的偏差。并以个性化产品销售企业最佳提货时间设置为例,通过建模和分析发现:当货物提前到达的边际损失大于延时到达的边际损失时,决策者越是进行风险规避,他设置的提货时间就越比风险中立者设置的最优提货时间小;当货物提前到达的边际损失和延时到达的边际损失相等时,不管决策者如何进行风险规避,他设置的提货时间都和风险中立者设置的最优提货时间相等;当货物提前到达的边际损失小于延时到达的边际损失时,决策者越是进行风险规避,他设置的提货时间就越比风险中立者设置的最优提货时间大。

This paper studies the effect of the decision maker＇s risk-averse behavior on the decision under uncertainty condition, uses the prospect theory to model the decision maker＇s behavior, and analyzes the decision bias between the risk-averse decision maker and the complete rational decision maker. It takes the optimal delivery product time of personalized product marketing establishment as an example. Through modeling and analyzing, we find that if the marginal loss of the product coming before delivery time is larger than the marginal loss of the product coming after delivery time, then the more risk-averse decision maker is, the smaller delivery time he sets is than the optimal value of the risk neutral maker; if the marginal loss of the product coming before delivery time is equal to the marginal loss of the product coming after delivery time, no matter how risk-averse he is, the delivery time he sets is equal to the optimal value of the risk neutral maker; if the marginal loss of the product coming before delivery time is smaller than the marginal loss of the product coming after delivery time, then the more risk-averse decision maker is, the larger delivery time he sets is than the optimal value of the risk neutral maker.