集中度及圆形分布法分析广州市恙虫病季节性特征

Seasonal Characteristics of Scrub Typhus in Guangzhou by Muster and Circular Distribution Methods

目的探讨广州市2006-2012年恙虫病发生季节分布特征,为防控措施的制定提供科学依据。方法应用集中度法和圆形分布法对广州市2006-2012年恙虫病疫情资料进行处理和分析。结果 2006-2012年广州市恙虫病发病呈上升趋势,且发病有明显的季节性,集中度M=0.51,圆形分布r=0.50,平均角珔a=216.11°,即广州市恙虫病流行的高峰日为8月8日,流行时间为6月上旬到10月中旬。结论广州市恙虫病发病率总体呈上升趋势且呈现较为明显的季节高峰,集中度和圆形分布的指标可以较为准确的反映广州恙虫病的流行高峰及流行时间。

Objective To explore the seasonal characters of scrub typhus from 2006 to 2012 in Guangzhou and to provide references for formulating prevention and control countermeasures. Methods Muster and tribution methods were adopted to analyze the epidemic data of scrub typhus during the period in Circular Dis- Guangzhou. Results The incidence of scrub typhus through the period in Guangzhou had been on rise and exhibited obvi- ous seasonal characteristics （M = 0. 51; r = 0. 50 and the average angle a = 216. 11°）, indicating that the peak -incidence day of scrub typhus was August 8, and the epidemic time lasted from the first 10 days of June to the middle 10 days of October. Conclusion The incidence of scrub typhus has been rising and the ep- idemic character exhibits obvious seasonal distribution in Guangzhou during 2006 -2012. The Muster and Circular Distribution method are capable of accurately describing the epidemic characteristics of scrub typhus.