基于灰色线性回归组合的武汉市房价收入比预测

Forecast the Housing Price Earnings Ratio of Wuhan Based on a Combination Model of Gray Prediction and Linear Regression

房价收入比是考察居民购房能力的一个重要指标,为了使房价与收入相匹配,必须对房价收入比进行研究,并对未来发展趋势进行预测。在传统房价收入比的基础上,采用灰色线性回归组合模型,对武汉房价收入比的未来发展趋势进行预测。通过数据计算分析,认为武汉市的房价收入比呈现持续增长趋势,并且已经超出了世界银行认同的合理水平。在保持居民可支配收入和房价的增长趋势不变的情况下,为了把房价收入比控制在10以内,在每年房价下调10%的基础上,未来5年房价仍需要降低0.57%～17.07%。

Price earnings ratio is an important index to investigate the purchase power of residents. In order to match the houseprices with incomes, housing price earnings ratio shall be studied, and the predictions for the future development tendency shall bemade. Based on traditional housing price earnings ratio, the future trend of Wuhan housing price earnings ratio is forecasted using amodel combined gray prediction and linear regression. Through the data calculation and analysis, the housing price earnings ratio ofWuhan shows a trend of sustainable growth, and has exceeded the reasonable level of the world bank approval. Maintaining the trendof current residents＇ disposable income and house price growth trend and keeping the price earnings ratio under 10 or less, thehousing price still needs to be reduced by 0.57% -17.07% more in the next 5 years on the basis that housing price reduced by 10%per year.