重工业化、人均实际GDP与碳强度——基于省级面板数据

Heavy-industrialization,Real GDP Per Capita and Carbon Intensity:Based on Provincial Panel Data

本文运用Driscoll—Kraay的稳健性估计方法分析了中国碳强度与重工业比重以及人均实际GDP之间的关系。研究结果表明:(1)碳强度与人均实际GDP之间存在着非线性的负相关关系,同时,碳强度下降的速度是先随人均实际GDP提高而加快随后又放缓的的这样一个倒U型关系。(2)重工业比重同碳强度之间存在着显著的正相关关系,并且回归系数比较大,说明重工业比重对于我国碳强度的影响比较大,通过降低重工业比重有助于降低我国的碳强度。

This paper using Driscoll-Kraay robust estimation methods to analysis the relationship between China＇s carbon intensity and share of heavy industry and per real GDE The results show that（1）There is a nonlinear negative relationship between carbon intensity and real GDP per capita,the rate of decline of carbon intensity will first accelerate then slowdown with the increase of real GDP per capita. There is a inverted U-type relationship between the rate of decline of carbon intensity and the real GDP per capita.（2）The share of heavy industry has a significant positive impact on the carbon intensity, and the estimated coefficient of share of heavy industry is big. This means that share of heavy industry has a important impact on the carbon intensity,by declining the share of heavy industry will help for declining the carbon intensity of our country.