动态数列直线趋势预测方法和参数研究

The Research of Dynamic Series Linear Trend Forecasting Methods and Parameters

本文通过采取步长和初始时间序列不同的两种情况,根据运用公式1计算的结果初步推断出动态数列直线趋势预测方法和参数的取值的规律,并对此规律进行数学证明和实例验证,并由此提出公式2和3。通过本文的论述可以得出,按照直线趋势预测法进行预测,预测值与取时间序列的第一个取值无关,也与时间序列间的步长大小无关,只要时间序列间的步长相等即可,预测值都是一样的,且预测值呈等差数列。

Taking the two cases of different step length and initial time series, according to the calculation results using formula 1, the dynamic series linear trend forecasting methods and parameters evaluation law are inferred and mathematical proof and verified examples are carried out to the law, and based on this, formula 2 and 3 are put forward. Through the discussion of this paper, it can be concluded that, according to the linear trend prediction method, the forecast value has nothing to do with the first value of the time sequence, also has nothing to do with the step length between time series, as long as the step length between the time sequences is equal, the predicted value is the same, and in arithmetic progression.