河北省城镇化与大气环境污染相关性研究

Correlation Study on Urbanization and Pollution of the Atmospheric Environment in Herbei Province

2000—2012年河北省城镇化进入快速发展阶段,在带动经济增长的同时,也造成了环境容量的过载,带来了严重的大气污染。利用计量软件Eviews6.0研究了城镇人口的增加与工业废气排放量之间存在单向的格兰杰因果关系,通过协整分析了两个变量之间存在长期和短期的均衡关系。提出在大气环境容量的约束下,河北省新型城镇化的发展要打造特色中小城镇和区域绿色主导产业等,保持适度的规模和速度,不能再盲目求快,造成大气环境的进一步恶化。

From 2000 to 2012, the rapid development of urbanization in Herbei Province has not only stimulated economic growth, but also caused environmental capacity overload and serious atmospheric pollution. By using metrology software eviews 6.0, the unidirectional Granger causality relationship between urban population and industrial waste gas emission volume was researched, and the existence of the long-term and short-term equilibrium relationship of between two variables was analyzed by making co-integration analysis. The results show that the development of new type urbaniza- tion in Herbei Province should build medium and small-sized cities and towns with characters and regional green leading industry to maintain a moderate pace and scale in the constraint of atmospheric environment capacity to avoid the further deterioration of the atmospheric environment.