基于面板数据的中国城市土地市场发育与土地集约利用的动态关系研究

Study on Dynamic Relationship Between Land Market Development and Intensive Land Use Based on Panel Data of Capital Cities in China

研究目的:通过分析城市土地市场发育与土地集约利用的长期均衡关系和短期波动效应,为转型期中国城市土地利用集约水平的提高提供一个新的研究视角和实现途径。研究方法:协整理论、Granger因果关系检验和脉冲响应函数。研究结果:中国城市土地的市场化程度与土地利用的集约度存在较稳定的长期均衡关系,而在短期内却是失衡的,且在东、中、西部地区表现各异。在东部,城市土地市场化程度对土地利用集约度的冲击效应为正,且随时间推移而递减,短期内降为0;在中部,城市土地市场化程度对土地集约利用的冲击效应为正且长期存在;在西部,城市土地市场化程度对土地集约利用的冲击效应短期内为负,而随时间推移变为正值且逐渐增大。研究结论:促进城市土地市场的发育和完善是促进转型期中国城市土地资源集约利用的主要手段,但在东、中、西部不同地区应根据土地市场发育程度的不同而有不同的政策着力点。

The purpose of this paper is to find a new way to improve the level of intensive land use in cities by studying the relationship between land market degree and intensive land use in long run and in short run. Based on the panel data of capital cities in China from 2001 to 2010, the paper analyzed the long-term equilibrium relationship and the short-term fluctuation effect between the land market development and the intensive land use by co-integration theory, Granger causality test, and impulse response function. The result showed that there was a stable long-term equilibrium relationship between the land market development and the intensive land use. While, it did not exist in the short term, and it would be different in eastern area, central area and western area. In the eastern region, the impact of urban land development on the intensive land use was positive, and the trend is decreasing. The impact would be zero in lagged 4th stage. In the central region, the impact of urban land development on the intensive land use was positive. And it would exist until the 10th stage. In the western region, the impact of urban land development on the intensive land use was negative. But the impact would be positive when the land market degree was improved. So, the paper concludes that the main method to improve the degree of intensive land use is to improve the level of land market development. But the key of policies would be different in different areas.