养老保险基金运营的模型和预测

The Modeling and Forecasting of Endowment Insurance Fund

本文综述养老保险基金收入与支出的结构情况 ,分析其主要影响因素 ,重点分析人口的年龄结构变化 ,并基于这些主要因素建立基金余额的数学模型。利用该模型 ,可以对基金的运营情况进行预测 ,对基金运营的参数进行敏感性分析。

This paper summarizes the current situation of the income and expenditure of the endowment insurance fund. It also analyzes some main factors involved in it,mainly focus on the changing of population's age structure. Based on these factors,we set up mathematical models,which can predict the condition of the fund,and can help to make decision of operating funds.