资源可持续与人类发展的动态关系及其政策启示

Dynamic relationship between resources sustainability and human development and policy implications

为了更深刻地理解资源可持续与人类发展之间的短期波动及相互影响,本文运用主成分方法构建资源可持续指标,利用面板数据向量自回归模型,检验世界56个国家2000—2009年资源可持续与人类发展二者之间的动态影响。研究结果表明:资源可持续与健康、教育增长率和国民收入增长率等三个子维度,存在直接或间接的关系,资源可持续与健康之间存在双向负相关,对教育增长率存在正向促进作用,与国民收入增长率存在间接相互作用,即资源可持续对国民收入增长率存在正向作用,而国民收入增长率对资源可持续存在负向作用。

In order to understand the short -term fluctuations and influence between resource sustainability and human de- velopment more deeply, this paper uses the principal component method to build resource sustainability indicators. With the panel data of vector autoregressive model, we test the dynamic influence of resource sustainability and human development in 56 countries from 2000 to 2009. The results of the research show that there is a direct or indirect relationship between resource sustainability and three sub- dimensions, such as health, education growth rate and national income growth rate. Specifically, there is a bilateral negative correlation between resource sustainability and health, and it has positive promoting effects on the growth rate of education. It has indirect interactions with national income growth rate, i.e., resource sustainability has positive effects on national income growth rate, but it has negative effects on resource sustainability.