危机与改革突破:来自中国的证据

Crisis and Breakthrough of Reform: Evidence from China

本文利用中国1978-2008年的时间序列数据,定量研究了危机与中国市场化改革之间的关系,首次在数量上证明危机冲击对中国市场化改革具有正向的推动作用。其原因可能是危机的冲击使最高(政治)决策者提供公共物品的能力下降,统治权的稳固性降低,最高(政治)决策者不得不加快市场化增量改革,以刺激经济增长来恢复提供公共物品的能力。

Using the time-series data from 1978 to 2008, this paper quantitatively analyzes the relationship between crisis and market reform of China, and proves for the first time that the shock of a crisis has forward promotion on market reform of China. The hypothesis is that the shock of a crisis weakens the ability of top decision-makers to provide public goods and threatens the stability of a government; so top decision-makers have to speed up the market reform in order to recover their a- bility to provide public goods through economic growth.