上海合作组织扩员的学理与政治分析

Membership Expansion of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization;Theoretical and Political Analysis

随着上海合作组织第十三次峰会的召开,以及俄罗斯就该组织的扩员问题发表官方看法后,上合的扩员问题再一次引起了人们的广泛关注。文章旨在对上合扩员进行学理和政治分析,前者重在比较上合扩员可能带来的收益与成本;后者则主要讨论上合成员国、尤其是俄罗斯与中国在上合定位以及扩员方面的差异。通过考察发现,上合扩员的成本超出了其收益,而且俄罗斯与中国在扩员问题上存在分歧,因此可以预计,上合在近期内不太可能实现扩员。在此背景下,上合需要加强组织内部的机制建设,同时着重处理成员国之间存在的分歧、项目实施存在的资金缺口以及工作人员缺乏相应的工作经验等问题,以保障上合的健康发展。

The membership expansion of the SCO has once again attracted extensive attention.This article aims to conduct a theoretical and political analysis of the expansion of SCO's membership.The theoretical analysis focuses on the costs and benefits comparison;the political analysis considers different opinions among member states,especially between Russia and China,with regard to their understandings of the SCO's orientation and its expansion.The article finds out that the costs of this membership expansion outweigh its benefits,and that there is a significant disagreement between China and Russia.As such,we expect that the prospects for realizing expansion of the SCO in the near future are minimal.Against this background,it is argued that the SCO needs to strengthen its internal organizational construction,while carefully managing discrepancies among member states.The SCO must also address the significant shortfall of financial resources necessarily for its projects implementation,and the problem that stuffs lacking relative experience.These steps can ensure the SCO's healthy development.