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上海煤炭流向图及其消费总量控制路线 被引量:1

Coal Flow Diagrams and its Total Consumption Control Line for Shanghai
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摘要 煤炭消费总量控制是当前改善空气质量的现实抓手和首要任务。基于成系列的上海煤炭流向图和连续可比的煤炭需求预测,以2012年为基准年,推演形成2015年、2017年和2020年上海煤炭消费总量分别削减300、500、700万t优化情景目标和相对照的规划情景、基础情景及强化情景目标。研究显示,上海煤炭消费在2011年"饱和点"之后负增长的总体态势逐步巩固,中小锅炉窑炉等分散燃煤持续减少;钢铁、化工等部门用煤可控;但受诸多因素的影响,电力用煤的不确定性增加,将成为中长期大气污染源头治理的重中之重和消费总量控制水平的关键制约。 Controlling coal consumption is the realistic starting point and primary task of improving overall air quality for China now.Based on a set of coal flow diagrams and continuous,comparable coal demand projec-tions,this paper developed four scenarios of coal consumption targets for Shanghai,which are the planning scenario,the baseline scenario,the optimized scenario and the enhanced scenario.Under the optimized scenar-io,the amount of coal consumed in Shanghai could be cut 3 million tons by 2015,5 million tons by 2017,and 7 million tons by 2020 respectively,with 2012 as base year.The results shows that negative growth trend of coal consumption in Shanghai had enhanced since the so-called'peak point'of coal consumption in Shanghai appeared in 2011.The amount of coal consumed by small and medium-sized coal-fired boilers has decreased continuously,while the amount of coal consumed by steer and chemical industries is also interpretable and con-trollable.Impacted by multiple factors,however,the uncertainty of coal used by power plants has increased, which make the proj ection of coal consumed by power plants become the priority among priorities of governing source of air pollution and the key restrict of energy consumption controlling in the medium and long-term.
出处 《电力与能源》 2014年第3期237-242,共6页 Power & Energy
基金 <电力用煤潜在碳排放因子核算与电厂煤样实测分析>(电力系统国家重点实验室项目SKLD10KZ02) <"十三五"及中长期能源和煤炭消费总量控制目标及对策措施研究>(国家能源局) <基于大气环境影响分析的能源结构优化研究>(华东电网 电能集团)
关键词 煤炭流向 控制目标 电煤热值 Coal flow Control target Heating value of coal used for power plants
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