摘要
Crop residues are an important biomass, and are significant in the sustainable development of China. This paper uses the Grey-Markov modeling approach, the cost-benefit analysis method, and the constraint optimiza- tion method to establish the potential of crop residue recycling in China （CRRC） using a bottom-up analysis. Taking 2010 as the baseline year, the CRRC model is used to determine the quantity trends of crop residue resources, simulating the recycling potential and selecting key crop residue recycling technologies for operation between 2010 and 2030. The results illustrate that the total residue output from different crops will gradually increase to 1062 million tons in 2030. The proportion of crop residue for field burning is expected to decrease as a result of guidance and support from the government. Market mechanisms are also improving the development of the crop residue recycling industry. The economic benefit of crop residue recycling is expected to be worth 132 billion CNY in 2030 according to technology structure options. Key crop residue recycling technologies preferred such as liquefaction, amination, silo, co-firing straw power and composting will account for more than 85% of the total benefits.
Crop residues are an important biomass, and are significant in the sustainable development of China. This paper uses the Grey-Markov modeling approach, the cost-benefit analysis method, and the constraint optimiza- tion method to establish the potential of crop residue recycling in China （CRRC） using a bottom-up analysis. Taking 2010 as the baseline year, the CRRC model is used to determine the quantity trends of crop residue resources, simulating the recycling potential and selecting key crop residue recycling technologies for operation between 2010 and 2030. The results illustrate that the total residue output from different crops will gradually increase to 1062 million tons in 2030. The proportion of crop residue for field burning is expected to decrease as a result of guidance and support from the government. Market mechanisms are also improving the development of the crop residue recycling industry. The economic benefit of crop residue recycling is expected to be worth 132 billion CNY in 2030 according to technology structure options. Key crop residue recycling technologies preferred such as liquefaction, amination, silo, co-firing straw power and composting will account for more than 85% of the total benefits.
