基于统计分析模型的飞行器落点预报方法

Research on Spacecraft Impact Point Forecast Method Based on Statistical Analysis Model

目前飞行器落点预报主要采用人机交互方式进行处理,而不同人员计算出的结果存在较大差异。针对该问题,提出了一种基于四阶龙格库塔计算方法的落点预报分布式计算统计分析模型。该模型根据飞行器的运行轨迹特性和在无动力、无控制、常质量段的预报落点具有集中分布的特点,采用零假设和备择假设统计方法对预报落点过滤选择,并对有效预报落点求其数学期望值。采用实际测量数据对所提出的模型进行了可行性和有效性验证,试验结果表明,该模型不仅具有较强的实时性、稳定性,而且当飞行器运行距离在数千千米时,该方法计算出的平面位置误差仅为几十米。

A distributed computing statistical analysis model based on fourth order Runge-Kutta method is proposed for spacecraft impact point forecast to minimize the difference in man-machine interactive way of forecast.Based on the dynamics characteristics of spacecraft and the features of concentrated distribution of forecast impact points in non-boost,no-control and constant mass phase,the model uses zero assumption and alternative assumption statistical method to filter out forecasts of impact points and get the mathematical expectation values from effective impact point forecasts.The effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed model is verified with actual measurement data.Experiment results show that the presented algorithm has high real-time performance,stability and high computation accuracy.The plane position error is only tens of meters when the operational distance of spacecraft is thousands of kilometers.