中国劳动密集型农产品出口增长:模式、因素、潜力——基于美国、日本、欧盟、韩国、中国香港市场的研究

Pattern, Factors and Potential of Export Growth in China's Labor-intensive Agricultural Products: A Study of US, Japanese, EU, South Korean and Hong Kong Markets

本文运用三元分解法、修正的CMS模型及贸易竞争力CTG指数对目标市场1995-2012年的中国劳动密集型农产品出口数据进行分析,探讨了中国劳动密集型农产品出口增长的模式、因素和潜力。研究表明:在目标市场上不同时期、不同产品出口增长模式有一定差别;出口增长因素对于出口整体和代表性产品也存在差异,需要结合产品自身特征开拓市场;出口产品的贸易潜力除个别产品、市场外,基本保持较大潜力,竞争力较强。研究结果揭示了现有劳动密集型农产品出口增长模式存在一定的调整空间,今后可以结合不同产品、不同市场出口增长因素和贸易潜力的特征适当地调整相关政策以达到最优效果。

Using the three-margin decomposition framework, the modified CMS model and CTG （Competitiveness of trade based on Gravity model） Index on trade competitiveness, this paper analyzes the export data of China＇s labor-intensive agricultural products during 1995-2012, and discusses the pattern, factor and potential behind the growth of China＇s labor-intensive agricultural exports. The results show that： （1） difference exists in the growth pattern of different products and at different times in the target market; （2） the effect of growth factors on the whole export and on representative products also varies, thus the indi- vidual features of a certain product should be considered when expanding the market; （3） apart from certain products and markets, the trade potential of China＇ s export products remains high and their competitiveness strong. The results reveal that there is a certain room for adjusting the export growth pattern of existing labor-intensive agricultural products in China, and policies should be fine-tuned by analyzing the export growth factors and trade potential of different products and markets.