财政支出、贸易条件与对外开放水平——基于面板门限模型的国际经验分析

Fiscal Expenditure, Terms of Trade and Openness: An International Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Threshold Model

本文基于45个国家2000-2012年的经济数据,在考虑对外开放水平差异的条件下,借助面板门限模型对财政支出与贸易条件的关系进行实证检验。研究结果表明,财政支出与贸易条件之间存在负相关关系,且这种关系会因对外开放水平的差异而呈现显著的门限效应。在对外开放水平较低的国家,财政支出对贸易条件的恶化作用较强;而在对外开放水平较高的国家,财政支出对贸易条件则表现为较弱的恶化效应。本文的结论表明,我国长期实施的扩张性财政政策对贸易条件的不利影响正逐步减弱。因此,我国既要保持扩张性财政政策运用的有效性,又要通过贸易政策尽可能地改善贸易条件,努力实现财政政策与贸易政策的有效协同与稳健运用。

Drawing on 45 countries＇ economic data from 2000 to 2012, this paper conducts an empirical research applying a panel threshold model to test the effect of fiscal expenditure on terms of trade at varied levels of openness. The study finds that fiscal expenditure is in a negative relationship with terms of trade and this relationship could is characterized by a significant threshold effect with varied degrees of openness. The deterioration effect of fiscal expenditure on terms of trade is stronger in countries with lower openness levels than in countries with higher openness levels. These findings suggest that the negative effect of China＇ s long-term expansionary fiscal policy on terms of trade is decreasing. Therefore, China should maintain the effectiveness of expansionary fiscal policies, improve the terms of trade by trade policies and seek coordinated and stable applications of the two types of policies.