亚太地区炼油工业与油品贸易展望

Asia's refining industry and oil-product trade outlook

亚太地区炼油工业正在放缓加工能力的扩张。截至2014年初,亚太地区原油一次加工能力达到3213万桶/日,比2013年初增加67万桶/日。未来几年,亚太地区的二次加工能力将继续增长。尽管未来几年新增需求大于新增炼油产能,但亚太地区仍将面临运输燃料(汽、煤、柴油)的过剩。目前亚太地区的产能过剩接近300万桶/日,但这明显低于五年前的400万桶/日。到2020年,亚洲将继续保持液化石油气、石脑油和燃料油的缺口状态。预计亚太地区石油产品净进口量将从2015年的258万桶/日增加到2020年达的292万桶/日。长远看,亚太地区尤其是中国需要继续控制一次加工能力,增强二次加工能力尤其是生产高品质清洁燃料的能力,提高特殊原油处理能力和炼油化工一体化程度,进而提高炼厂收率和效益。

Processing capacity expansion is slowing down in the AsiaPacific region's refining industry. As of early 2014 crude oil processing capacity reached 32.13 million barrels/day, up 670,000 barrels/day year-over-year. Secondary processing capacity will continue to grow over the next few years. Although demand is now greater than it will be in the next few years for adding new refining capacity, the region still faces a transportation fuels(gasoline, kerosene and diesel) glut. Excess capacity is close to 3 million barrels/day, but that's significantly lower 4 million barrels/day five years ago. By 2020, Asia will continue being short LPG, naphtha and fuel oil. Net imports of petroleum products are expected to grow from 2.58 million barrels/day in 2015 to 2.92 million barrels/day in 2020. In the long run the Asia-Pacific region, especially China, needs to continue controlling processing capacity, enhance secondary processing capabilities especially in the production of high-quality clean fuels, and increase special crude oil handling capacity and the degree of refining and chemical industry integration, thereby increasing the yield and efficiency of refineries.