全球主要地区石油焦供需现状及趋势分析——“2014阿格斯亚太石油焦会议”集粹

Situation and trends in petroleum coke supply & demand, by region of the world——Highlights for Argus Asia Petroleum Coke Summit 2014

2013年,全球石油焦产量为12638万吨,其中燃料级约占70%,其他为碳素级。未来5年,全球石油焦产量仍将继续增长,增量中约80%来自亚太、中东和拉美地区;预计2018年产量将达到14400万吨,其中燃料级所占比例将上升至74%。美国页岩油和加拿大油砂油的快速发展将对美国原油加工结构产生重大影响,长期看美国石油焦供应地位将减弱,但仍是全球石油焦的生产重心之一。中国和印度石油焦供应稳定增长,未来5年两国的石油焦市场仍然供不应求,但中国政府提高进口高硫石油焦关税以及国内煤炭价格下滑将对中国石油焦需求增长产生一定负面影响。中东及北非地区的焦化能力和石油焦产量将大幅上升,是全球石油焦产量增加最快的地区。

In 2013 world petroleum coke production reached 126.38million tons, of which about 70% is fuel grade, the rest for the carbon concentration. The global output of petroleum coke will continue increasing in the next five years, when it is expected to reach 144 million tons of which the fuel-grade share will rise to 74%, and 80% of the growth share will have come from Asia, the Middle East and Latin America Production of US shale oil and Canadian oil-sands crude is rapidly growing, and this will have a significant impac on the US's crude oil refining processes and lead to longrun weakening in US petroleum coke supply, although the US will remain one of the global production centers. Supply of petroleum coke is steadily growing in China and India where it will still be short of demand in the next five years However, Chinese government plans to raise tariffs of imported high-sulfur petroleum coke, together with declining domestic coal prices, will discourage growth in Chinese petroleum coke demand. Coking capacity and petroleum coke production will rise sharply in the Middle East and North Africa which in the coming years are going to be the region having the world's fastest growing petroleum coke yield.