空间负荷预测中不确定性因素的处理方法

PROCESSING OF UNCERTAINTY IN SPATIAL LOAD FORECASTING FOR DISTRIBUTION PLANNING

城市的变化通常呈现平稳发展和跳跃发展两种态势 ,其间还夹杂着各种规模的城区改造。笔者对影响空间负荷预测 (SL F)的不确定性因素进行了详细的分析和归类 ,并对传统的 SL F模型进行了改造使之能够处理城市跳跃发展和城市改造等特殊情况。针对跳跃式发展模型 ,提出了“事件中心”的概念 ,并将空间负荷预测分解为基础分布和事件分布的叠加 ;针对大事件出现时间和位置的不确定性 ,提出了多方案预测法 ;针对城市改造模型 ,提出了小区改造准则 ,改进了用地最优分配模型 。

The city development usually falls into two categories: smooth growth due to the continuous increase in economics, population and living standard, and abrupt change due to huge mount of outside investment or big project planned for the future, which once implemented the spatial load distribution may change significantly. This paper proposes a new SLF method to deal with the uncertainty in spatial load forecasting. Firstly, a new concept of Event Center is put forward to reflect the effect of big project on load distribution. The whole load distribution can be seen as an overlap of load distributions resulted from event centers and urban pole. In this paper, the forecasting procedure is divided into two steps: firstly, a land use based SLF method is used to predict a basic distribution, which reflects the smooth trend in load growth. Then, an event distribution can be forecasted using the concept of event center, which includes uncertainties.