专利前向引用是否遵循Logistic扩散模型?

Does the Pattern of Forward Citations Follow the Logistic Diffusion Model?

专利间的引用可以揭示出专利技术之间的内在联系以及其传播路径,透过专利引文分析可以推断出技术的扩散过程。基于Hosein Fallah和Elliot Fishman(2009)曾针对生物技术、电信技术、可替代能源技术三个领域中的高引用专利的前向引用进行Logistic模型的实证检验,以巨磁阻领域为例对Logistic模型作进一步的实证检验。最后将研究结果与Hosein Fallah和Elliot Fishman的结果进行对比分析。

There is a correlation between patent citations and technology diffusion. So we can infer technology diffusion from patent cita- tions. Hosein Fallah and Elliot Fishman（ 2009 ） have fit the cumulative forward citations to the Logistic model for three classes of technolo- biotechnology, telecommunications and alternative energy, and their analysis suggests that forward citation does not follow the Lo- gistic model well. In this study, we will fit the cumulative forward citations to Logistic model again for GMR, the difference between two studies is explained at last.