2014年5月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergency and concerned infectious diseases in China's Mainland,May 2014

目的评估2014年5月国内外突发公共卫生事件及需要关注传染病的风险。方法根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(直辖市、自治区)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果根据近期传染病和突发公共卫生事件监测数据,结合既往突发公共卫生事件发生情况及传染病流行特点分析,5月全国突发公共卫生事件将较4月将有所上升,但报告事件数可能不会超过2011年以来同期平均水平;报告事件将以手足口病、流行性腮腺炎、风疹、水痘等传染病暴发为主,其次为食物中毒;学校等集体单位报告较多。手足口病将进入发病高峰期;麻疹将维持较高发病水平;布鲁氏菌病的病例会继续呈现上升趋势;人感染H7N9禽流感将维持在较低水平。中东呼吸综合征存在输入我国风险,但风险未较以前明显上升。西非埃博拉病毒病输入我国的风险低。结论 2014年5月全国突发公共卫生事件将有所上升;需重点关注手足口病,一般关注人感染H7N9禽流感、麻疹、布鲁氏菌病、中东呼吸综合征和埃博拉病毒病。

Objective To assess the risk of public health emergency and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in May 2014. Methods Semi-structured interviews and discussions among subject matter experts based on surveillance data and public healthorganizations＇ bulletins, et at. And provincialCenters for Disease Control and Prevention attended the assessment through remote video conference. Results According to the surveillance data of infectious disease and public health emergency, the occurrence of public health emergency events in May will be higher than April, but it would be lower than the average level of 2011 -2013; and the most common event categories may be infectious disease outbreak of hand-foot-mouth disease, mumps, rubella and varicella et al, and following by food poisoning; those events would mostly affect school and other crowded facilities. In May, hand-foot-mouth disease would go up to the epidemic peak; measles will be still at relative high level than the recent 3 years at the same time; more human brucellosis cases would be reported; and human infected with avian influenza A（H7N9） would be at a low level. China is still at risk with imported Middle East Respiratory Syndrome （MERS）, but the risk is not significant higher than April. The risk of Ebola virus disease（EVD） imported to China is low. Conclusion It is expected that the national public health emergencies in May 2014 would be on the rise; and it is needed to majorly concern hand-foot-mouth disease, generally concern human infection with avian influenza A（H7N9）, measles, brucellosis, MERS and EVD.