调温负荷的估算方法及影响因素研究

Research on Estimation Method of Temperature-adjusting Load and Its Influence Factors

调温负荷包括夏季降温负荷和冬季采暖负荷,已成为电网负荷屡创新高的主要原因。准确把握当地调温负荷特性及其变化趋势对于迎峰度夏工作的顺利完成具有重要意义。首先采用基准负荷比较法,估算了四川地区夏季及冬季典型月的调温负荷;其次通过相关性及敏感性分析,评估了主要影响因素的影响程度;最后综合灰色预测法及回归法,预测了未来四川地区调温负荷的变化趋势。结果表明,调温负荷与气温及空调保有量密切相关,且与后者相关性更高。电力消费观念发生改变,人们对高温和低温的耐受力下降。夏季降温负荷及冬季采暖负荷对气温的敏感性存在较大差异,对空调保有量的敏感性较为接近。随着城镇化率及空调保有量的逐年提升,预计2013年四川地区调温负荷仍维持在高水平。

Temperature adjusting load includes the summer cooling load and the winter heating load, which has become the main reason for new high records of grid load. It is sig nificant to successfully live through summer peaks by well knowing characteristics and their trends of local temperature adjusting load. Firstly, the temperature adjusting load of typrcal summer and winter month in Sichuan Province is esti mated by the reference load comparison method. Secondly, the influence degree of main influence factors is assessed by the relevance and sensitivity analysis. In the end, the future tendency of temperature adjusting load in Sichuan Province is predicted by using of comprehensive grey prediction and regression method. The results show that temperature adjus ting load is close related to temperature and the holdings a mount of airconditioner, which has higher relevance. Peoples tolerance to high and low temperature falls with the at titude changing of electricity consumption. There is big diffe.rence in the sensitivity of the temperature from summercooling load and winter heating load, which is fairly close to the sensitivity of airconditioner holdings. With the increas ing of urbanization rate and the amount of airconditioner holdings, it is predicted that temperature adjusting load will maintain at a high level in Sichuan Province during the year of 2013.