运输通道客运需求方式结构组合预测方法研究

Research on Combined Forecast Method for Passenger Demand Modes and Structures in Transport Corridor

在阐述客运需求结构的定义及其影响因素的基础上,探讨客运需求方式结构的形成机理。基于此形成机理,提出旅客出行选择运输方式的层次结构过程,并依此构建间接预测模型。将间接预测模型与MNL模型(直接预测模型)进行组合预测,通过对2种模型预测结果进行差异化的权重赋予,从而形成最终预测结果。以沪宁运输通道为实例对该组合预测方法进行试验,并对预测结果与现状数据进行比较,结果表明该组合预测方法具有较好的可行性。

On the basis of stating the definition and influence factors of passenger demand structures, this paper probes into the formation mechanism of passenger demand modes and structures. Based on the formation mechanism, the paper proposes hierarchy process of transport modes selected by passengers for trip and establishes an indirect forecast model accordingly. The paper performs combined forecast with indirect forecast model and MNL model （direct forecast model）, and gives differential weights for forecast results of two models so as to form the final forecast result. With Shanghai-Najing transport corridor as an example the paper tests this combined forecast method and compares the forecast result with status quo data, the result shows that this combined forecast method has good feasibility.