概念性生态水文模型区分气候变化与土地利用变化的径流影响

Application of conceptual eco-hydrologic model to distinguish effects of climate change and land use change on runoff

区分气候变化和人类活动对流域径流量的相对影响,对深入认识流域水资源形成和演变规律、合理开发利用水资源和保护生态环境具有重要的科学价值。采用由美国学者Tomer等提出的概念性生态水文模型,基于水量平衡和能量平衡原理,同时考虑气候变化和人类活动的作用,定性区分气候变化和土地利用方式改变对径流变化的影响。应用于石羊河流域内出山口径流有减少趋势且存在变异的大靖河、古浪河、黄羊河、杂木河和金塔河5个子流域,结果表明在同一干旱期不同子流域径流变化的影响因素存在差异,在整个研究期气候变化为各河流出山口径流量变化的主要影响因子。

Distinguishing the effects of climate change and land use change in a river basln on its runoff is crucial to deep understanding of water resources formation and evolution, rational exploitation and utilization, and environment protection. This paper describes application of a conceptual eco-hydrological model, developed by Tomer using water balance and energy balance principles for separation of these effects in Shiyang River basin under climate change and human activities. The study area covers the sub-basins of five mountainous tributaries： Dajing river, Gulang river, Huangyang river, Zamu river and Jintai river. In recent years all the tributary runoff have took a decreasing tendency and showed a variation point. The results show that in the same drought period the influencing factors of different sub-basins were not the same, but climate change was the major factor for the runoff changes in all the five tributaries throughout the study period.