DEA法在区域洪水资源利用评价中的应用

Application of DEA to regional floodwater utilization competitiveness evaluation

根据数据包络分析用于评价规模有效性和技术有效性方面的特性,将数据包络分析中的C2R模型引入区域洪水资源利用竞争性评价,并在分析洪水资源利用效益和风险的分类及各种洪水资源利用效益和风险的估算方法的基础上,将风险和淹没损失作为模型的输入项,效益作为模型的输出项,构建基于DEA的区域洪水资源利用竞争性评价模型结构及其计算分析方法。以海河流域北三河区域相关子区域和典型洪水资源利用措施的风险效益分析成果为模型的基础数据,进行了区域洪水资源利用竞争性评价实例分析,实例计算成果表明,在确定的12种决策单元中,上游区(对应于密云水库的第三种洪水资源利用方案)和下游区(对应于大黄铺洼蓄滞洪区第五种洪水资源利用方案)具有相对较高的有效值,即上游区的水库汛期运行和下游区的蓄滞洪区运用具有较强的洪水资源利用竞争性。

This paper describes an techniques procedure of data envelope algorithm （DEA） model to regional floodwater utilization competition evaluation according to the DEA features in assessment on scale and technique effectiveness of decision-making units （DMUs）. This procedure adopts a C2R model and considers risks and flood loss as model input and benefit of floodwater utilization as output, based on analysis on the types of risk and benefit and their assessment methods in regional floodwater utilization techniques. It has been applied to competitiveness evaluation on the Beisanhe watershed in the Haihe basin. Results show that under predetermined twelve DMUs, two sub-regions have higher competitiveness of floodwater utilization, i.e. an upstream sub-region in the third flood-regulation scenario of Miyun reservior and a downstream sub-region in the fifth flood detention scenario of Dahuangpuwa. This means that higher competitiveness occurs generally in flood season operation policy of upstream reservoirs or downstream flood detention measures.