经济增长与能源强度:基于面板平滑转换回归模型的实证分析

Economic Growth and Energy Intensity:An Empirical Research Based on Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model

选取1960—2009年间9国的面板数据,基于面板平滑转换回归(PSTR)模型及改进的算法,实证分析了经济增长与能源强度间的关系。实证结果不仅支持了经济增长与能源强度之间倒U型关系的存在,而且表明在一国经济的不同发展阶段,经济增长与能源强度之间存在连续平滑转换机制,机制转换效应使经济变量以阈值为界从一个机制转为另一个机制;目前,中国的经济增长与能源强度处于倒U型曲线的上行阶段,当人均GDP达13208.48美元时,能源强度的拐点或将出现,经济增长对能源的依赖程度或将逐步下降。

By using the panel data of nine countries over the period of 1960--2009, this article studied the relationship between the economic growth and energy intensity is studied based on the panel smooth transfer regression （PSTR） model. Empirical results, on one hand, not only effectively verify the inverted Ushaped relationship between economic growth and energy intensity, but also show the linear effect plays a dominant role in improving the energy intensity at different levels of economic growth, and in various stages of economic development, there is a continuous smooth transfer regime between economic growth and energy intensity that influences the economic variables transfer from one regime to another regime bounded by the threshold. On the other hand, at present, China＇s economic growth and energy intensity is in the up-moving period of the inverted U-shaped, and when the GDP per capita reaches $ 13208.48, the value of China＇s energy intensity will be at a turning point.