规划电网供需风险的概率评估及电源建设薄弱环节辨识

A Probabilistic Assessment of Supply- Demand Risk in Power Grid Planning and the Weakness Identification of Power Supply Construction

针对电力系统规划中电源建设周期的不确定性对规划电网供需形势的影响,提出规划电网供需风险概率评估方法。该方法结合电源建设进度,用概率来描述电源建设周期的不确定性,建立规划电网供需风险评估及风险指标分解模型,并根据各电厂风险指标辨识电源建设的薄弱环节。以国内某省级电网为例,进行了算例分析,验证了该方法的有效性。

Aiming at the influence of power supply construction period uncertainty to the supply- demand risk in planning power grid,a probabilistic assessment method of the risk is proposed in this paper. Considering the construction progress of the power supply,the method describes the uncertainty in probability,and builds up models for the risk assessment and risk indicator decomposition. And according to the risk indicator of each planning power supply project,the method does the weakness identification of power supply construction. A provincial power grid is taken as an analysis example with the proposed method,and the feasibility of the method is verified.