军事对抗与两岸军事安全互信机制未来前景

Military Confrontation and the Prospect of the Mechanism for Cross-Strait Mutual Trust in Military Security

本文在阐述军事对抗与军事安全互信机制辩证关系的基础上,提出一种有益于建立军事安全互信机制、创造台海永久和平的新型军事安全战略。这种新型军事安全战略的基本特征是:把维护两岸关系和平发展作为根本目标,既关注如何赢得战争,也关注如何通过战争赢得和平,还关注如何防止已经建立起来的和平转化为新的战争。以此为标准检视台海各方军事安全战略可以看到:中国大陆军事安全战略实现了战略与政略的高度结合,为军事服从政治、服务两岸关系和平发展提供了无限可能;台湾、美国坚持"只经不政"、"和而不解",使其"和平愿望"难以贯彻到军事安全战略层面,是阻碍两岸军事安全互信机制建立的根本原因。

On the basis of analyzing the dialectical relationship between the military confrontation and Confidence Building Mechanism（CBM） on Military Security, this paper proposes a new military security strategy condu- cive to establishing CBM and creating enduring peace across the Taiwan Straits. The defining features of this new military security strategy are ： aiming at maintaining the peaceful development of the cross-Strait relations, focusing not only on how to win a war, but also on how to regain peace by war and how to prevent new wars during the peacetime. This paper concludes that the fundamental obstacles hindering the establishment of CBM across the Taiwan Strait are the ＂economy but not politics＂ and ＂peace without reconciliation＂ policies insisted by the Taiwan authority and the United States, and as a result, their ＂wish for peace＂ can never be realized at the military security level.