人民币区域化背景下泰铢外汇市场压力指数变动及影响因素研究

Research on the Change and Influencing Factors of EMP Index of Thai Baht under the Background of Renminbi Regionalization

根据汇率变动的压力来源,引入包括泰铢的名义汇率、外汇储备、泰中利差和泰中通胀差等四个因素构建泰铢外汇市场压力指数,综合分析2002年1月至2013年8月泰铢汇率变动的压力来源,并对泰铢汇率压力变动趋势、特点和影响因素的贡献分析进行深入探讨。

With the deepening of the global economic and financial crisis, the tightness of the trade connection is continuously upgrading and the Renminbi international business is becoming more and more perfect, the conditions that the Renminbi has become the leading currency in the monetary cooperation in East Asia are more and more mature. The function of Renminbi on the Asian currencies has long been debated in policy makers and academic circles. Researches find that Reminbi started to figure more prominently in the currency markets of the Asian economies, primarily due to competitive relationships between China's Mainland and the related Asian countries in the global export business. In this paper we aim to build a Thai Baht pressure index of exchange market according to the four pressure resources of the exchange rate including the Thai Baht nominal exchange rate, the foreign reserves, Thai-China interest rate spread and Thai-China inflation difference, and have a comprehensive analysis to the pressure sources of the Thai Baht exchange rate from January 2002 to August 2013, and then discussed on the changing trend, characteristics and affecting factors of the pressure of the Thai Baht exchange rate.