大米价格波动的农户福利效应研究

Empirical Analysis on Fluctuation's Welfare Effects under the Fluctuation of Rice Price

基于中国1991—2009年大米生产与消费的相关数据,在对大米供给弹性和需求弹性估计的基础上,运用Minot福利效应模型对中国大米价格波动的农户福利效应进行测算和分解。结果表明:1991—2009年期间,价格波动导致农户短期生产福利为26.79亿元,农户短期消费福利为-68.17亿元,农户短期总福利累计为-41.36亿元;农户长期生产福利累计为27.43亿元,农户长期消费福利累计为-18.93亿元,农户长期总福利累计为8.51亿元。大米价格变化引起农户收入与大米消费支出变化的相对值决定农户总福利效应。当价格变化引起农户收入大于大米消费支出变化时,农户福利得到改善;反之,农户福利恶化。大米价格变动的农户长期福利效应与短期福利效应表现出相同的变化趋势,且农户长期福利效应优于短期福利效应。

This paper estimates the supply and demand elasticity of rice from the perspective of welfare distribution in China based on Minot welfare effect model. The results show as follows： rice production price fluctuation has a positive effect on producer welfare effects, however, the rice consumption price changes has a negative role, this caused by the relative value between farmer income and rice expenditure which de- termines farmers ＇ total welfare effects. When the price changes caused by farmers ＇ income are greater than the changes in grain consumption expenditures, farmers＇ welfare improved. Changes in the price of rice farmers＇ long-term welfare effects and short-term welfare effects shows the same trend, while the long-term welfare effects is better than the short-term welfare effects.