中国城镇化——市场还是政府?

Urbanization in China-Market or Government

文章分析了市场和政府对城镇化的作用机理。选取1981年到2008年数据,在设定正确的模型基础上,采用状态空间模型考察市场和政府对城镇化影响的动态弹性。分析结果表明:1981年以来中国城镇化进程中,市场和政府的作用经历两次波动,有较强的互补性,市场作用力大于政府,但是市场作用有下降趋势,政府作用相反。

This paper makes a theoretical analysis based on the selected data from 1981 to 2008. We try to set the right model forms, and use state space model to make a research on the market and the government dynamic flexibility of urbanization. Analysis results show that： from 1981 the market and the government＇s role in urbanization experienced two swings in China, and their effect have strong complementarity. Market forces is greater than the government, hut the market function has a downward trend.