收入驱动国民出境旅游S模型——四个国家和地区比较

A‘S'Curve Model of National Revenue driven Outbound Travel Rate:The Case Study of the Taiwan,South Korea,U.S.and U.K.

收入是驱动人们外出旅游的关键因素，相对国内旅游而言，出境旅游距离远、花费高，对人均收入有着更高的要求。本文以我国台湾地区、韩国、美国、英国为典型案例，依据1980—2010年时间序列数据，构建了收入驱动的国民出境旅游率s型曲线模型，分析了人均GDP变化对国民出境旅游的影响，并引入了三个特征值，对四个经济体居民出境旅游率s型曲线进行横向比较。结果发现，人均GDP在0．4万～0．6万美元，居民出境旅游起步进人导入点；人均GDP在1．1万～1．5万美元，出境旅游进入爆发的转折点；人均GDP达到2．0万～3．0万美元，出境旅游进入稳定的成熟期。本文从S型曲线的特征点出发，分析了四个经济体居民出境旅游的差异。在此基础上，以美国为案例，分析了人均GDP增长对国民出境旅游空间大小的影响，发现人均GDP超过2．0万美元后，国民选择长距离洲际旅游几率增大，而短距离洲内旅游相对稳定；并对中国出境游的现状做出分析。本文澄清了对出境旅游收入门槛的模糊认识，也为出境旅游空间尺度的变化提供了新的事实。

Revenue is the crucial factor that drives people to travel, outbound travel is farther and more expen sive than the domestic travel, so outbound travel has a higher requirement on people＇ s revenue. In this paper, ac cording to 1980- 2010 time series data to creates ＇S＇ curve model of national revenue driven outbound travel rate, through the Taiwan, South Korea, the United States, and the United Kingdom as case study. The main method is log linear way. The research analyzes the change of GDP per capita influence the outbound travel rate, and imports three char acteristic values： the import point, the turning point, and the steady point, which can horizontal comparison of four typical cases of ＇ S＇ curve model. In order to place the different countries in one model, it also divided the ＇ S＇ curve model into 4 stages, the initial stage, the rapid growth stage, the moderate growth stage, the mature stage, re spectively. The outbound tourism of Taiwan and South Korea started in 1980, both of them simulation the 4 stages of the ＇S＇ curve model. Nevertheless, the United States and the United Kingdom as the have higher outbound travelling rate, both of them lack of the import point as well as th limited the amount of data, the outbound tourism of the U. S. A. and the U. K. started in ly.