我国城市房地产市场划分:基于供需分布的视角

The Division of China's Urban Real Estate Market:A New Perspective of Distribution

本文借鉴基尼系数的思想,构建了房地产开发投资分布系数(IDI)和商品房销售分布系数(SDI),以此测度房地产市场的供需分布情况,得出我国城市房地产市场存在严重的"贫富分化"现象,有必要进行合理划分,为差异化调控提供基础。进而,围绕供需分布优化的思想,从供需要素和市场表现两大层面,综合运用六类算法将我国283个城市房地产市场划分为重点调控、稳定发展、适度扶持三大区域,13个子类市场。据此,针对每类市场提出了松弛有别的差别化调控建议。

Ever since 2010, a new round of urban real estate market regulation has been implemented by Chi nese government to control the soaring housing price in major cities in China, which is characterized by the differ entiated policies to various regions according to their local market performance. However, there has been still no commonlyagreed region division of China＇ s urban real estate market. And the current regulation is thus either on the basis of geographical division （e. g. the Eastern, the Western and the Central） or administrative division （e. g. provinces）. Whether these divisions are appropriate for the implementation of differentiated policies？ With this question, this paper proposes a new perspective of distribution to analyze the imbalances in China＇ s urban real estate market, as well as the rationality of using the current division as the basis for differentiated real es tate market regulation. And two indicators, the Investment Distribution Index （IDI） and Sale Distribution Index （ SDI）, are accordingly constructed and computed with the reference to the methodology of Gini index. By calculat ing the IDI and SDI of regions including Eastern region, Central region, Westem region, JingJinJi region, Yan gtze River Delta and Bohai region, we find that there is wide richpoor gap in China＇ s urban real estate market at the current divided levels, both in the supply side and demand side. Almost all the regions＇ IDI and SDI exceed the warning level 0. 4 which is set by United Nation for the Gini index, which also demonstrates that it may not be reasonable to implement the differentiated regulation according to these divided regions as the Chinese government does currently. Therefore it is necessary to explore a more proper way to divide the China＇ s urban real estate mar ket. Under these considerations, a twostage clustering procedure is proposed based on the optimization of supply demand resource distribution. It is then undertaken to divide the real estate market of 283 prefecturelevel cities and above, during which six algorithms are employed and the IDI and SDI are used as external evaluation indexes to select the optimal clustering results. Finally, the China＇ s urban real estate market is divided into three main parts including thirteen submarkets, and differentiated policies are suggested on the basis of the clustering results. Compared with the previous studies, this paper innovates in the following sides. Firstly, we propose a new perspective of distribution and two indicators, IDI and SDI, are constructed with the reference to the methodology of the Gini index, to measure the distribution of urban real estate market, which are also used to externally evaluate the clustering results of six algorithms. Secondly, the twostage clustering procedure is constructed which embraces both the characteristics of the influential factors and market performance, so as to divide the real estate market more properly. Thirdly, the real estate grouping cube constructed in this paper provides an innovative framework to select the key factors influencing the market, which are employed to cluster the market. All the work can serve as a basis for future related research in the field of real estate economics. Based on the research, we conclude that the real estate market in 283 prefecturelevel cities and above can be divided into three main regions including thirteen submarkets based on the proposed new perspective of demand and supply distribution. The first one is the regulation region, which is characterized by overheated real estate market and thus needs to be controlled by implementing tight policies. The second is the healthily developing region, in eluding the cities whose real estate markets develop coordinately with the local economy, so it is not necessary to implement tight policies. The third is the supporting region, in which the urban real estate market is underdevel oped and the local government should implement policies to support the development of the local real estate market. The submarkets in each region also have differential characteristics, which should be taken into consideration when the government makes targeted policies. It＇ s should be pointed out that the work of this paper is a static clustering ket, with no consideration of the shortterm market dynamics and the effect of And we will make these researches in future work. work of the urban real estate mar the change of some major factors.